Foresighting Workshops

Over the next 15 years Australia’s seafood producers, and in particular commercial fishers, will need to navigate an increasingly complex environment, with a diverse range of impacts and conflicting interests.

FOR EXAMPLE:

The impact of climate change on marine environments, including prevalence of adverse weather events, movement of species, and increased disease.

  • Spatial squeeze resulting from increased demand to access the marine estate by energy producers (offshore wind, oil and gas), aquaculture (finfish, seaweed), marine-tourism, marine mining, carbon dioxide removal technologies, nature repair initiatives, and marine protected areas.
  • Changes in fisheries governance, including quota and license restrictions, increased reporting requirements, and limits on fishing gear.
  • Changes in market demand, including new product development, place of origin and sustainability labelling, and changes in both supply chain and food packaging requirements.
  • An increased role for First Nations in the marine estate.

Using science-based risk analysis and quantitative modelling, this research identifies the likely impact of these changes on the marine-space over the period 2024- 2040.

It explores alternative futures and informs decision-making in relation to planning processes and operating principles.

Based on workshop respondents and information available on key drivers, the project team identified three potential future pathways for the Australian seafood industry shaped by the level and types of interventions.

The first was the worst case without proactive intervention.

The second is what is considered probable without any intervention.

The final one is what may be possible if proactive, desirable, interventions are made.

These three scenarios were described over three time periods (2025-2030, 2035-2035, 2035-2040).

That information will be used to specify inputs for simulation models, the output of those models will be used to see what the impact of those scenario conditions on seafood production, profitability and Australia’s marine ecosystems.

The modelled outputs will also be used by the Futures of Seafood Study Team to identify the types of actions and interventions needed to change course and will inform the conversations with industry to develop the Futures of Seafood Roadmap (Work Package 4).